Re: [Planner Dev] Uncertainty management / MonteCarlo simulation

["lincoln phipps openmutual net" <lincoln phipps openmutual net>]

Mark/ Santiago ,

Some thoughts from me - I didn't actually see Santiago's
original posting as an email but its on the web archive
and sounds interesting. Done Monte Carlo on financial
stuff - but not project times.

We all know its essential; after all when asking a
supplier when will 'x' arrive, then they usually quote
a range of dates e.g. 2-4 weeks and never a precise
date unless there are penalties for late delivery.
So we usually plan on the pessimistic duration if
using anything that doesn't allow a range of durations.

What parameters do you think we'd need remembered for
each task across project saves ?.

I'm guessing we'll need,
- optimistic duration (3SD from mean),
- most likely duration, and
- pessimistic duration (3SD from mean),
- probability distribution for this duration,

Then given expected time we could store...
- Earliest Start/End,
- Latest Start/End,

using the existing forward and backward passes on the Planner
scheduler routine, with the "Monte Carlo" giving us the
cumulative probability values. Is that it ? I'm guessing the
duration probability function would be one of a set list
of standard functions (like poisson, or uniform or one
of many others that are used) or a user defined distribution
table of probabilities.

/Lincoln.

Mark Durrenberger wrote:

> Great question.
>
> I've just completed a basic monte carlo program that works as an add-in 
> to MS Project (Visual basic)
>
> As I get up to speed with Planner dev, I hope to build the same 
> capability into planner - and then some...
>
> IN the open source environment it will be substantially easier to add 
> simulation capability than it is to "bolt on" after market capability 
> with M$project
>
> Mark
>
> At 05:04 PM 3/31/2004, serquicia Argentina com wrote:
>
> > Hi, I'm new to the list and I wanted to know some questions about future
> > development.
> >
> > Is it planned to introduce any type of uncertainty management or the 
> > possibility
> > to run Monte Carlo simulations within planner?  (The first step would be
> > the possibility to enter the uncertain durations)
> >
> > I'm a research assistant doing something about this.  I think that one of
> > the biggest problems with the tools that implement something like that is
> > that they were implemented as an after thought.  I find really difficult
> > to visualize the results of a simulation and hard to tie it with the 
> > scheduling
> > of the project.
> >
> > I'm not a programer, although I have done some.  In my actual research 
> > I'm
> > doing some things in python like a Monte Carlo simulation solver.  It did
> > it actually to benchmark a new method we are researching.  I've read that
> > there is a possibility of using python with planner.  What would be a 
> > good
> > tutorial or starting point to use planner with python?
> >
> > Thanks in advance,
> > Santiago
> >
> > ______________________________________________________________________
> >
> > Obtenga gratis su cuenta @Argentina.com con AntiVirus, 20mb de espacio,
> >
> > acceso POP3 y SMTP en 24 ciudades                     www.Argentina.com
> >
> >
> >
> > _______________________________________________
> > Planner-dev mailing list
> > Planner-dev lists imendio com
> > http://lists.imendio.com/mailman/listinfo/planner-dev
>
>
> You can lead a boy to college, but you cannot make him think.
>
>                                               Elbert Hubbard
>
> _______________________________________________
> Planner-dev mailing list
> Planner-dev lists imendio com
> http://lists.imendio.com/mailman/listinfo/planner-dev