Re: [Planner Dev] Uncertainty management / MonteCarlo simulation

[Santiago Erquicia <serquicia argentina com>]

No, that was not my idea.  My idea is to present the result in the Gantt
chart (for durations) and in other views for other type of data.  If I
have time and know how to use the gimp, I'll try to give you a picture.

If you are in the Gantt view, when you move the mouse over the start of
the task the probability curve of that starting time should appear and
mark you were you are like 80%, 30%, etc.  Of course that should be a
pop-up window but something more ease to work with.  At that moment you
can pick one value for your schedule (the Gantt chart)

In costs, you have the fixed cost that can also be uncertain (so you
have a probability distribution), and a variable cost that depend on the
duration.  If you set the duration time, the cost should be already
set.  Or it can be the other way.

On Thu, 2004-04-01 at 17:52, Mark Durrenberger wrote:
> Santiago,
> Would you like to see a picture like this:
> 
> Mark
> 
> At 05:26 PM 4/1/2004, Santiago Erquicia wrote:
> >I think that you can just get the result of the simulation and take the
> >frequency with a given precision.  In the Gantt view what you are doing
> >actually is scheduling, so you should be able to chose the start and
> >finishing date to a given percentage of the probability to make it.  Of
> >course when the task is always away of the critical path you can choose
> >any number.
> >
> >I used python to do my Monte Carlo simulation program because it already
> >has a package for a lot of probability distributions (scipy).
> >
> >I really think that it is not hard to do the simulation, but get harder
> >to integrate it visually with all the other things.  Once you have your
> >uncertain durations, you should calculate your uncertain costs ;-)
> >
> >I'll need to compile Planner before trying anything because it doesn't
> >come with Fedora Core 2.
> >
> >Santiago